The 81st Annual Academy Awards are two days away. Going in, I'm fairly ambivalent about the outcome. Unlike last year, when There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men duked it out for the top prize, there are no masterpieces. I deeply admired Darren Aronofsky's The Wrestler, Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire, Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight, Andrew Stanton's WALL-E and Gus Van Sant's Milk. These would have been my nominees for Best Director and Best Picture, but many of them got gypped.

Still, I'll definitely be tuning in. I've watched every awards show since 1990, when I was 9 going on 10. All 9-year-olds who watch the Oscars naturally assume they'll be making it to the podium someday. I'm sure if I looked hard enough I'd find a few acceptance speeches, written in chicken-scratch and tucked away for safekeeping. I'm more cynical and realistic about all that now - instead of 30, now I'm giving myself until 40 to win an Oscar. Now and then I'm forced to look away to avoid being blinded by all the Great and Important People basking in their own sense of self-worth. But mostly the Oscars give me a giddy feeling in the pit of my stomach.

Now to the fun part: guessing who will win. I've written about the categories that don't bore me, and I've also included my pick for who SHOULD win. I can't wait for the show, and I can't wait until Monday, when all of this will look like utter nonsense. For a complete list of the nominees, click here.

BEST PICTURE

Slumdog Millionaire is the frontrunner, but I think Milk is going to pull a surprise upset. This is the Academy's chance to repent for picking Crash over Brokeback Mountain a few years ago, surely the most controversial choice since Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan in 1999. Academy members also want to demonstrate their opposition to Proposition 8, and Van Sant's biopic of slain gay-rights leader Harvey Milk gives them a chance to do so. Can I get an amen from someone else who thinks The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon and The Reader don't belong anywhere near this category?

Should win: Slumdog Millionaire

Will win: Milk

BEST DIRECTOR

It doesn't happen very often, but I think the Best Picture and Best Director winners won't match this year. The Curious Case of Benjamin and Slumdog Millionaire are the most technically challenging of the nominees, but where Button is soulless, Slumdog is all heart. That gives Danny Boyle the edge.

Should win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Will win: Danny Boyle

BEST ACTOR

Tough call. Everyone loves a comeback story, and Mickey Rourke's is one of the greatest, but the comeback kid often goes home empty-handed on Oscar night. My hunch is that Milk is going to have a mini-sweep near the end of the night, and Sean Penn will go home happy.

Should win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Will win: Sean Penn, Milk

BEST ACTRESS

Angelina Jolie almost ruined Changeling, so I'm not sure what she's doing here. Anne Hathaway was brilliant in Jonathan Demme's little-seen indie Rachel Getting Married, but many people (not me) seem to think her character was unlovable in that movie. Kate Winslet is getting a lot of good press these days, and this is her sixth nomination with no wins. So yeah, it's Winslet.

Should win: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Will win: Kate Winslet, The Reader

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Heath Ledger deserves to win and will, but boy am I happy that Michael Shannon got nominated. His scenes in Revolutionary Road are just as funny and scary as The Joker's. Two great performances missing from this category: Emile Hirsch in Milk and Jason Butler Harner in Changeling.

Should win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Will win: Heath Ledger

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz gave her best English-language performance to date in Woody Allen's Vicky Cristina Barcelona, but this isn't her year. Darren Aronofsky's amazing The Wrestler has to go home with something, and this is Marisa Tomei's chance to prove her 1993 win for My Cousin Vinny wasn't a fluke.

Should win: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Will win: Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Other guesses...

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WALL-E

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Milk

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Slumdog Millionaire

BEST FILM EDITING

The Dark Knight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Dark Knight

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button